Real stories from the trenches of financial analysis. We cover valuation models, capital structure decisions, and risk assessment frameworks that actually matter when you're under deadline pressure.
Last month, I watched a senior analyst defend a 15% discount rate for a stable utility company. The CFO wasn't having it. This happens more often than you'd think—and the consequences can derail entire M&A deals. Here's what actually drives discount rate selection and why your beta calculation might be telling you lies.
Continue ReadingTerminal value assumptions can make or break your valuation. We tested five common approaches against actual acquisition outcomes from 2024. Two methods consistently missed by over 20%.
Read full analysis →Target debt ratios sound great in theory. But what happens when credit markets freeze? Three case studies from Australian mid-caps that had to pivot their entire financing strategy mid-transaction.
Read full analysis →The textbook version of NWC calculations falls apart when you're dealing with seasonal businesses. Here's what actually matters in purchase price negotiations and why your first draft is probably wrong.
Read full analysis →Running scenarios isn't just changing three variables and calling it risk management. We break down a real due diligence case where proper sensitivity work saved the buyer .2M in overpayment.
Read full analysis →Finding true comparables is harder than ever in specialized industries. A look at how focusing on wrong metrics led one team to completely misvalue a tech acquisition target by 35%.
Read full analysis →Most synergy estimates are optimistic fiction. We examined post-merger results from 18 deals and found the patterns that separate realistic projections from boardroom wishful thinking.
Read full analysis →
Spent 14 years valuing everything from mining operations to fintech startups. Former Big Four manager who got tired of theoretical models that ignore market reality.
I see analysts pull five-year betas without questioning whether that time period actually reflects current business operations. If the company pivoted strategy two years ago, your beta calculation is incorporating data from a completely different business model. Look at what changed operationally before accepting any historical metric.
Using GDP growth as your terminal rate sounds conservative until you realize you're valuing a company in a declining industry. The perpetuity assumption breaks down faster than you think. I've seen more valuation disputes arise from this single line item than almost anything else in the model.
Your Excel file should flag inconsistencies automatically. If working capital as a percentage of revenue suddenly spikes in year three, the model should highlight it. Most errors happen because assumptions drift across tabs and nobody notices until the client meeting.
Download our working DCF and LBO models with built-in error checking. These are the actual templates we use for client engagements, with sensitivity tables that actually matter.
Access templatesStop relying on Bloomberg's default settings. This workbook lets you adjust lookback periods, compare frequency intervals, and see how different methodologies affect your cost of equity.
Download workbookASX-listed companies with detailed financial metrics updated quarterly. Filter by industry, size, and capital structure to find actual comparables instead of vague industry peers.
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